Thursday 23 January 2020 · 4:00 pm, New York
It is January 2020, and China has just sealed off a city of eleven million people.
You have money in the markets. That headline makes you uneasy. Is this the start of something, or is it noise?
Everything anyone knows this afternoon:
- Transport out of Wuhan and nearby cities has been restricted.
- WHO reports 557 confirmed cases, human-to-human transmission, and exported cases in several Asian countries.
- The WHO committee is divided and does not yet declare an international public-health emergency.
- Mainland Chinese shares have already begun slipping, and are about to shut for the New Year holiday. American and European markets have not moved: US stocks closed yesterday a fraction below their record.
So what do you do?
Pick one and find out what the following week did. Nothing is required of you — no account, no email, and your answer never leaves this browser.
Something to run when you are frightened.
You leave with the same six judgments, in the same order, every time — so that on the day it matters you are working through a procedure instead of reacting to a headline.
Trace the path to financial damage
Find the markets that should react first
Separate danger from damage already priced
Choose the smallest adequate response
Decide in advance what changes your mind
Twelve crises you will have already lived through.
Each lesson reveals four dated checkpoints. At every one you record an action, a reason, a confidence, what would change your mind, and when you will look again — before anything later is shown to you. No hindsight, so the practice is worth something.
- COVID, Lehman and AIG, SVB, Brexit, war, energy, trade, and more
- Charts stop dead at the current checkpoint
- Feedback judges your reasoning, never simulated profit
- Every answer, import, and export stays on your device
One payment. The complete trainer.
A subscription is a promise to keep delivering. This is twelve finished lessons, so it is sold once. If that changes, the price changes with it — not the other way round.
Individual access
$49
One time, in USD · applicable tax added at checkout · your own currency may be shown there · founding price, which may rise for later buyers
- All twelve lessons
- Private live-evidence guide after three core lessons
- Corrections to the included lessons
- Do three lessons. If you would not decide differently next time, ask for the money back — 30 days, no justification
Checkout is not open yet. Until it is, 25 more people get all twelve lessons for nothing, permanently.
What this is not.
Does it tell me what to buy or sell?
No. It teaches a decision process. It never selects, sizes, authorises, or executes a trade, and it gives no personalised advice.
Does it predict the next crisis?
No. Historical cases are practice material. They are not evidence that the next event will behave the same way, and nothing here promises better returns or fewer losses.
Where do my answers go?
Nowhere. They stay in your browser. Payment is checked online, but what you write is never sent to us and we cannot read it.
Can I try it before paying?
Yes. The free lesson is a complete one, not a trailer — four checkpoints, the same hidden future, the same debrief.