Decision 1 of 4 in this crisis · one week later

While nothing looked like it was happening, money was already moving.

That falling line is the US 10-year Treasury yield — people buying government bonds. It is what caution looks like before it reaches share prices, and it started in the week you were deciding.Highlighted: the US 10-year Treasury yield, set to 100 before you decided; the dotted line is the day you decided. Sources: Federal Reserve H.15, US Energy Information Administration, New York Fed.

On 30 January the WHO declared a global health emergency. Outside China there were 98 cases and no deaths, in 18 countries.

You acted. Shares kept rising for another month before they broke, so you would have spent four uncomfortable weeks looking wrong — and then been ahead of almost everyone.

Decision 2 of 4 · Thursday 30 January 2020

Now the alarm is official. Does that change anything?

The WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
Still 98 cases and no deaths outside China.
China's own containment is already severe.

Last week being wrong cost you very little. From here it starts to cost something.

Two minutes, two decisions. Nothing is required of you.